Immigrants' earnings growth and return migration from the US

移民的收入增长和来自美国的回归移民

2019/04/25 00:00
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2005年有近40%的有记录的新移民在10年内离开美国,但是谁回归移民,为什么在关于移民的政策辩论中经常被忽视。

Nearly 40% of documented new arrivals to the US in 2005 left within ten years, but who return migrates and why is often overlooked in policy debates regarding immigration. This column uses survey data and earnings records from 2005 to 2015 to show that a decline in earnings is a strong predictor of return migration. Those who stayed for the decade saw their wages reach parity with native-born workers, while those who left had seen a steep decline in wages in the years before departure. Further analysis shows that highly educated immigrants are more likely to leave the US within a decade of arrival.

2005年有近40%的有记录的新移民在10年内离开美国,但是谁回归移民,为什么在关于移民的政策辩论中经常被忽视。本专栏使用2005年至2015年的调查数据和收入记录显示收入下降是回归迁移的强预测因子。那些留在这十年的人看到他们的工资与土生土长的工人相当,而离开的人在出发前几年的工资急剧下降。进一步的分析表明,受过高等教育的移民更有可能在抵达后的十年内离开美国。

Policy debates in the US regarding immigration often focus on how well new arrivals assimilate into the US economy in terms of employment and earnings. Previous research (e.g. Borjas 2003, Card 1990) has attempted to examine rates of assimilation, but a key component of the immigration story was missing: Who return migrates, and why? Recently available data go far in addressing this question (Akee and Jones 2019).

美国关于移民问题的政策辩论往往关注新移民在就业和收入方面融入美国经济的程度。之前的研究(例如Borjas 2003,Card 1990)试图研究同化率,但是移民故事的一个关键组成部分却遗失了:谁回归移民,为什么?最近有数据可以解决这个问题(Akee和Jones 2019)。

Although the US has historically provided important opportunities for immigrants, our research indicates that nearly 40% of documented new arrivals to the US in 2005 left before 2015. Of all new arrivals, those who remained in the US for the full decade eventually saw their wages reach parity with native-born workers. In contrast, those who left saw a steep decline in wages in the years before departure.

虽然美国历史上为移民提供了重要的机会,但我们的研究表明,2005年之前离开美国的新移民中有近40%在2015年之前离开。在所有新移民中,那些在整个十年留在美国的人最终都看到了他们的工资。与本土出生的工人达成平等。相比之下,那些离开的人在出发前几年的工资急剧下降。

Our analysis uses data from the American Community Survey (ACS) linked to Form W-2 and Form 1099 earnings records. We start with new arrivals to the US in the ACS from 2005 to 2007 (those who reporting arriving in the year or two before taking the survey). We then track these new arrivals forward in the tax records, tracing their outcomes in the US labour market up to 2015.

我们的分析使用美国社区调查(ACS)中与W-2表格和1099表格收入记录相关的数据。我们首先从2005年到2007年在ACS进入美国的新移民(那些报告在参加调查前一两年内到达的人)。然后,我们在税务记录中跟踪这些新来的人,追踪他们在美国劳动力市场的结果,直到2015年。

Our data solve a key problem in analysing immigrant outcomes. In the past, researchers were limited to examining a point-in-time population of immigrants – a group that remained in the US up to the point at which they are observed. Such data suffer from selection bias in that those who remain have differentially succeeded in the US labour market. Without information about those who leave, estimates of labour market outcomes for immigrants will be biased upward.

我们的数据解决了分析移民结果的关键问题。在过去,研究人员仅限于检查移民的时间点 - 一群留在美国的群体,直到观察到这一点。这些数据受到选择偏差的影响,因为那些留下来的人在美国劳动力市场上取得了不同的成功。如果没有关于离开者的信息,对移民的劳动力市场结果的估计将偏向上升。

Our findings

我们的发现

We find that average earnings of new arrivals start off at about 60% of those of native-born workers with comparable education. Earnings of long-term ‘stayers’ quickly diverge from those who leave. In Figure 1, we show the average earnings of the two groups compared with native-born earnings over time.

我们发现新来港人士的平均收入约为具有可比教育程度的本地出生工人的60%。长期“滞留者”的收入很快就会与离开的人产生分歧。在图1中,我们显示了两组的平均收入与本地出生收入的比较。

Figure 1 Log immigrant–native annual earnings of men aged 25-45

图1记录25-45岁男性的移民本地年收入

We show the earnings for our two immigrant groups as proportions of native-born earnings (the horizontal dashed red line) in each year. Although the two groups arrive with fairly comparable earnings, divergence becomes apparent in the second year, and there is a steady decline in the earnings of ‘leavers’ beginning in 2008. The earnings of the ‘stayers’ eventually reach parity with, and even surpass, those of the native-born by 2010. Earnings for the leavers reach, at most, 80% of native-born earnings (in 2008).

我们将两个移民群体的收入显示为每年本土出生收入(水平虚线红线)的比例。尽管这两个群体的收益相当可观,但第二年的分歧明显,2008年开始的“离职者”收入稳步下降。“滞留者”的收入最终达到平价,甚至超过那些本土出生于2010年的人。离职者的收入最多达到本土出生收入的80%(2008年)。

This decline in earnings is a strong predictor of return migration and is the novel finding of our analysis. These results are consistent with previous findings that return migrants are negatively selected for labour market success and earnings in the US. The novelty of our finding is that the earnings trajectory is downward trending. Whereas previous results simply indicated that there might be level differences across ‘stayers’ and ‘leavers, we show that there is a continual downward earnings trajectory for return migrants over all time periods.

收益的下降是回归移民的强有力预测因素,也是我们分析的新发现。这些结果与先前的调查结果一致,即回归移民在美国的劳动力市场成功和收入中被选择为负面。我们发现的新颖之处在于盈利轨迹呈下降趋势。虽然之前的结果只是表明“滞留者”和“离开者”之间可能存在水平差异,但我们表明,在所有时间段内,返回移民的收入轨迹都在持续下降。

Figure 1 also shows the impact of positive selection on estimates based on repeated cross-section data. The dashed black line reports the predicted earnings for men from a standard repeated cross-section analysis, which includes all immigrants present in the data at each time period. As demonstrated in the figure, over time as return migration creates an increasingly high-earning stock of immigrants, earnings growth estimates are increasingly overstated.

图1还显示了基于重复横截面数据的正选择对估计的影响。黑色虚线表示标准重复横断面分析中男性的预测收入,其中包括每个时间段内数据中的所有移民。如图所示,随着回归移民创造了越来越高收入的移民存量,随着时间的推移,收入增长预测越来越被夸大。

Further analysis shows that highly educated immigrants are more likely than those with less education to leave the US within a decade of arrival. In Figure 2, we show the return rates for the 2005 entry cohort by educational attainment. There is a relatively steep reduction in the immigrant cohort in the first year after arrival, when approximately 20% return home. After the first year, there is divergence by educational attainment in the return migration rates. It appears that individuals with the highest educational attainment are proportionately more likely to return home over time. The solid black line represents those with a Master’s or Doctorate degree; they have the highest return migration of all education categories. Those with a college degree also have a relatively high return rate. Those with some college or a high school degree are less likely to leave the US.

进一步的分析表明,受过高等教育的移民比受教育程度较低的移民更有可能在抵达后的十年内离开美国。在图2中,我们按教育程度显示了2005年入学群体的回报率。抵达后第一年移民群体的减少幅度相对较大,大约20%的人返回家园。在第一年之后,回归迁移率的教育程度存在差异。看来,受教育程度最高的人比例更有可能随着时间的推移回家。黑色实线代表具有硕士或博士学位的人;他们拥有所有教育类别中最高的回归迁移率。拥有大学学位的人也有相对较高的回报率。那些拥有大学或高中学历的人不太可能离开美国。

Figure 2 Presence of W-2 or 1099 for 2005 entry cohort for men aged 25-45 by educational attainment

图2按教育程度分列的25-45岁男性入学队列的W-2或1099的存在情况

Return migration rates also vary by other characteristics, such as country of origin – immigrants from Canada are the most likely to return, while those from the Philippines are least likely. Meanwhile, neither marital status nor English language ability are important determinants in return migration.

返回移民率也因其他特征而异,例如原籍国 - 来自加拿大的移民最有可能返回,而来自菲律宾的移民最不可能返回。同时,婚姻状况和英语语言能力都不是回归移民的重要决定因素。

We also examine earnings assimilation by a variety of demographic characteristics.  Several interesting patterns stand out:

我们还通过各种人口统计特征来研究收益同化。几个有趣的模式脱颖而出:

  • Immigrants with less than a high school degree out-earn native-born workers upon arrival in the US, but experience flat earnings growth. Other education groups show assimilation rates similar to the overall average. 
  • 高中学历不到的移民在抵达美国后获得本土出生的工人,但收入增长不平衡。其他教育团体表现出与总体平均水平相似的同化率。
  • Country of birth also matters, with immigrants from India and Canada out-earning native-born workers upon arrival, those from China and the Philippines assimilating over time, and those from Mexico holding steady at about 70% of the native-born wage. 
  • 出生的国家也很重要,来自印度和加拿大的移民在抵达时赚取本土出生的工人,来自中国和菲律宾的移民随着时间的推移而同化,而来自墨西哥的移民则持有约70%的本土工资。
  • Race also plays an important role. Compared with native-born of the same race, non-Hispanic whites quickly reach parity and soon outpace native-born workers by 40%. All other races, meanwhile, reach parity with their native-born counterparts more slowly. These last findings are in line with Villarreal and Tamborini (2018). 
  • 种族也起着重要作用。与同一种族的本土出生者相比,非西班牙裔白人迅速达到平等,并很快超过本土出生的工人40%。与此同时,所有其他种族与本土出生的对手比较慢。这些最新发现与比利亚雷亚尔和Tamborini(2018年)一致。

Discussion

讨论

An important result in our analysis is that male return migrants and male stayers enter the US with comparable earnings. We provide novel findings suggesting that unobserved time-variant characteristics likely play an important role in determining immigrant earnings success. Previous research highlighted the importance of cultural and social assimilation of immigrants.

我们分析的一个重要结果是,男性回归移民和男性入境者以相当的收入进入美国。我们提供了新的发现,表明未观察到的时变特征可能在确定移民收入成功方面发挥重要作用。以前的研究强调了移民文化和社会同化的重要性。

While we have no measures of these characteristics over time, it is possible that non-cognitive type skills are important in determining employment relationships and success. As noted earlier, these characteristics also must be related to the time spent in the US. Therefore, immigrants who remain in the US, holding observed characteristics constant, must be those who are most flexible and integrate better with respect to the US labour force. Our research suggests potential policy interventions to help with the adaption of immigrants formally entering the US labour force.

虽然我们没有长期测量这些特征,但非认知类型技能可能对决定雇佣关系和成功很重要。如前所述,这些特征也必须与在美国度过的时间有关。因此,留在美国的移民,观察到的特征不变,必须是那些最灵活,与美国劳动力相比更好地融合的移民。我们的研究表明,潜在的政策干预有助于适应正式进入美国劳动力的移民。

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