Durable Goods On The Rise

耐用品订单上升

2019/04/26 02:31
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美联储在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议之前进入静默期,因此货币政策领域的情况有点平静。

The Fed is in blackout ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, so it’s a bit quiet in monetary policy-land. On the non-recession watch, core durable goods orders rose in March:

美联储在下周的联邦公开市场委员会会议之前进入静默期,因此货币政策领域的情况有点平静。3月核心耐用品订单增加:


That’s another ding to the recession story. And, to be fair, a ding to the slowdown story as well. So far, this isn’t even shaping up to 2015-16 standards, raising the question of whether the soft landing story is really in play yet? That’s something I am watching closely; stable monetary policy assumes economic deceleration in the months ahead. Stronger-than-expected growth would cause us to question that outlook.

这是经济衰退的另一个故事。而且,公平地说,也是对减速故事的追求。到目前为止,这甚至没有达到2015-16标准,提出了软着陆故事是否真正起作用的问题呢?这是我正在密切关注的事情;稳定的货币政策假设未来几个月经济减速。强于预期的增长将使我们质疑这种前景。

Initial unemployment claims popped this week:

本周首次申请失业救济人数突然增加

That’s not something to worry about as there are two suspected culprits to account for the surge. Easter came late – the timing of holidays poses challenges for seasonal adjustment of weekly data. Also, a grocery strike likely impacted the data. Overall, nothing to see here, folks, move along.

这不是什么值得担心的事情,因为有两个可疑的罪魁祸首来解释激增。复活节来得晚 - 节假日时间对每周数据的季节性调整提出了挑战。此外,杂货店罢工可能会影响数据。总的来说,这里没有什么可看的,伙计们,继续前进。

Tomorrow is first quarter GDP. The Atlanta Fed is looking for 2.7%, which would be a pretty good number considering that the low estimate was just 0.2% in early March and the first quarter has been on the soft side in recent years. The Fed will be particularly interested in the internals of the report, in particular underlying domestic demand, and looking for that slowdown noted above. The inflation component is of course important, but is expected to remain sufficiently soft to support the Fed’s patient policy stance.

明天是第一季度GDP。亚特兰大联储预计为2.7%,考虑到3月初的低估值仅为0.2%,而近年来第一季度一直处于疲软状态,这将是一个非常好的数字。美联储将对该报告的内部特别感兴趣,特别是潜在的国内需求,并寻找上述减速。通胀部分当然很重要,但预计将保持足够的软性以支持美联储的患者政策立场。

Bottom Line: That recession just isn’t happening. Even the degree of slowing could arguably be in doubt. Nothing though yet sufficiently definitive to push the Fed to change rates in either direction.

一句话:经济衰退并没有发生。即使是放缓的程度也可能存在疑问。也没有什么足以推动美联储改变利率。

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