Why is EM underperforming DM this year?

为什么新兴市场今年表现不如发达市场?

2019/04/30 23:11
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对照中文英文原文
新兴市场货币在PMI一直在下降的情况下走势艰难,因此其股票回报率低于美国和其他发达市场。

After a very tough 2018, emerging market (EM) equities are off to a good start to the year, up about 13% in U.S. dollar terms. While this is a good showing in absolute terms, in relative terms EM is underperforming developed market (DM) equities by 3 percentage points and the U.S. specifically by almost 5 percentage points.

在经历了非常艰难的2018年之后,新兴市场(EM)股市今年开局良好,按美元计算上涨约13%。尽管从绝对值来看,这是一个不错的表现,但相对而言,新兴市场股票的表现落后于发达市场股票3个百分点,尤其是美国,落后近5个百分点。

What is behind this underperformance of EM relative to DM? Often, the answer to that question lies in EM currency performance versus the U.S. dollar – and this time is no different. EM will tend to outperform DM when EM currencies are strengthening versus the U.S. dollar. This relationship between relative performance and the currency makes sense on many different levels. The first is just the direct currency translation effect: EM local returns will be worth more in U.S. dollar terms when EM currencies have strengthened versus the U.S. dollar.

新兴市场相对于发达市场表现不佳的原因是什么?通常,这个问题的答案在于新兴市场货币兑美元的表现——这次也不例外。当新兴市场货币兑美元走强时,新兴市场的表现往往强于发达市场。相对业绩与货币之间的这种关系在许多不同层面上都有意义。首先是直接的货币转换效应:当新兴市场货币兑美元走强时,以美元计算的新兴市场本地回报率将更高。

However, this relationship is more than just skin deep. EM currencies will tend to strengthen when global economic growth is improving. Historically, this has been seen during moments when the global manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is rising. This suggests EM economic and earnings growth is improving as well – and it encourages flows to move from very defensive U.S. assets to riskier EM assets, pushing up the value of EM currencies. On the flip side, EM currencies have struggled in moments when the PMI has been falling, and thus its equity returns have underperformed versus the U.S. and other developed markets.

然而,这种关系不仅仅是表面上的。当全球经济增长正在改善时,新兴市场货币往往会走强。从历史上看,这一点在全球制造业PMI(采购经理人指数)上升的时候就能看到。这表明新兴市场的经济和盈利增长也在改善,并鼓励资金从防御性很强的美国资产流向风险更高的新兴市场资产,推高了新兴市场货币的价值。另一方面,新兴市场货币在PMI一直在下降的时候走势艰难,因此其股票回报率低于美国和其他发达市场。

At the moment, this is still where we find ourselves today. Since its peak in December 2017, the global manufacturing PMI has fallen 3.8 points from 54.4 to 50.6 in March. During this time, EM currencies weakened by 7%. Encouragingly, the PMI was stable in March relative to the previous month, but for EM currencies to strengthen on a sustained basis, and its equity performance to really take-off, we will need to see the PMI move upwards. There is reason for optimism, given three big changes this year: 1) the Fed pause, allowing other central banks (both in DM and EM) to ease policy and support growth, 2) the pivot in trade talks between China and the U.S., which will hopefully lead to a deal soon, helping depressed business confidence, and 3) the continued positive effects of Chinese economic stimulus on its own economy, as well as on other neighboring Asian ones.

目前,这仍然是我们今天发现自己的地方。自2017年12月达到峰值以来,全球制造业PMI已从54.4下降3.8点,至3月份的50.6。在此期间,新兴市场货币贬值7%。令人鼓舞的是,3月份PMI相对于上月保持稳定,但要让新兴市场货币持续走强,使其股市表现真正起飞,我们需要看到PMI上升。鉴于今年的三大变化,我们有理由保持乐观:1)美联储暂停加息,允许其他央行(包括发达市场和新兴市场)放松政策,支持经济增长;2)中美贸易谈判转向这将有助于提振低迷的商业信心,以及中国经济刺激计划对本国以及其他亚洲邻国经济持续产生的积极影响。

This currency question will be crucial for EM performance the rest of the year. However, in the medium to long-term, these currency waves end up fading from view and EM equity performance is driven by its faster economic and earnings growth. As a result, the currency question is important, but only for tweaks at the margin of what is a structural allocation to EM equities.

汇率问题将对新兴市场今年剩余时间的表现至关重要。然而,中长期来看,这些汇率波动最终将从人们的视野中消失,新兴市场股市的表现受到其更快的经济和盈利增长的推动。因此,汇率问题很重要,但仅限于调整新兴市场股票的结构性配置。

EM currencies strengthen vs. U.S. dollar when global growth is improving

在全球经济增长改善之际,新兴市场货币兑美元走强

EM currencies vs. USD, monthly, average annualized return, Jan. 2000 - Mar. 2019

2000年1月至2019年3月,新兴市场货币对美元的月度平均年化回报率

Markit, J.P. Morgan Global Economic Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. EM currencies is the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Currency Index. Global Mfg. PMI is the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the global manufacturing sector. Data are as of April 26, 2019.

摩根大通全球经济研究,摩根大通资产管理。新兴市场货币是摩根大通新兴市场货币指数。全球制造。PMI是Markit全球制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)。数据截至2019年4月26日。

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