Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Value Chains

用全球价值链重新评估贸易壁垒

2019/05/15 13:18
对照中文英文原文
本文系统、定量地分析了各种贸易限制政策在全球价值链和跨国生产环境下的短期和长期效果。

ABSTRACT

摘要

This paper provides a systematic, quantitative analysis of the short-run and long-run effects of various trade-restricting policies in the presence of global value chains and multinational production. Using a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with endogenous firm entry and exit in both exporting and multinational production, I compare the effects of (i) tariffs on final-good imports, (ii) tariffs on intermediate-input imports, and (iii) barriers to accessing foreign markets.

本文系统、定量地分析了各种贸易限制政策在全球价值链和跨国生产环境下的短期和长期效果。利用一个能够在出口和跨国生产中进入和退出的内生企业的两国动态随机一般均衡模型,本文比较了(I)最终商品进口关税、(ii)中间投入进口关税和(iii)进入外国市场壁垒的影响。

I show that, in the long run, all three policies lead to a recession in both countries, but the relative effects on the GDP of the two countries vary across policies. At the firm level, less productive exporters exit from the destination market while the most productive few find it profitable to locate production in the foreign country as multinationals, thereby partially recovering the loss from exporting. In the short run, the dynamics differ across policies and from their long-run outcomes. Final-good tariffs and market-access barriers lead to a temporary production boom in the policy-imposing country, while intermediate-input tariffs result in an immediate recession in both countries. The latter also discourages multinational operation over the short run when the input tariffs dominate the declining costs of labor and capital.

研究表明,从长远来看,这三种政策都导致了两国的经济衰退,但对两国GDP的相对影响因政策而异。在公司一级,生产率较低的出口商从目标市场退出,而生产率最高的少数人则发现将生产作为跨国公司在国外进行有利可图,从而在一定程度上弥补出口的损失。在短期内,不同的政策以及它们的长期结果会产生不同的动态。最终优惠关税和市场准入壁垒导致实施政策的国家出现暂时的生产繁荣,而中间投入关税则导致两国立即陷入衰退。后者还在短期内阻碍跨国经营,因为投入关税在劳动力和资本成本下降中占主导地位。

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