光看全美失业率怎知美国各地的失业率是如何分布的?

2019/06/19 08:23
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全美各地的失业率分布情况并不均衡。

Unemployment is uneven across U.S. counties

The graph above shows the annual civilian unemployment rate from 1948 to 2018, and here are some highlights: Ten years ago, after the Great Recession, the U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 9.6%. (The only higher unemployment rate in this series was 9.7%, in 1982.) It gradually came down to 3.9% in 2018, the lowest in fifty years. (The rate in 1969 was 3.5%.)

上图显示的是1948-2018年美国历年失业率的演变情况,从图中可以看到几个关键点:10年前的2008年经济危机刚过,美国失业率达到9.6%的高位,在此之前,只有1982年的9.7%高于该水平。2018年,失业率已逐步降至近五十年来的最低点3.9%,仅略高于1969年的失业率3.5%。

But these national unemployment numbers mask the variation that exists across different regions in the U.S. Fortunately, we have GeoFRED to paint a clearer picture: The map below shows the unemployment rate for 2018 for 3,133 U.S. counties. The counties are split into two equally sized groups according to their unemployment rates: Those with lower unemployment are in blue, and those with higher unemployment are in red. Specifically, the blue group had a rate lower than 3.87%, and the red group had a rate between 3.87% and the maximum of 18.08%. (By the way, all counties in New Hampshire are blue and all counties in Arizona are red.) 

但是,全美的失业率数据掩盖了全美各地失业率的差距。好在圣路易斯联邦储备银行的GeoFRED功能可以更清晰地描绘出全美各地的失业率情况,下图为3133个郡级地区2018年的失业率。根据失业率的不同,将这3133个郡级地区等分成两类:失业率低于3.87%的地区用蓝色标示,失业率在3.87%-18.08%(即全美各地中失业率最高水平)的地区用红色标示。

View on GeoFRED®

The map reveals that unemployment rates are unevenly distributed across the nation. Many counties in the Midwest have lower-than-average unemployment rates. In particular, Iowa and Nebraska counties, with only a few exceptions, are blue. In contrast, it’s not surprising to see that the Rust Belt region—e.g., Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio—is home to many counties with high unemployment rates. There are also many red counties in the Sun Belt and on the West Coast, which have rates higher than the national average.

该分布图显示全美各地的失业率分布情况并不均衡。中西部的很多地区失业率低于全美平均水平,尤其是艾奥瓦州和内布拉斯加州,除了几个郡属于例外,整个州基本上都是蓝色。与此形成鲜明对比的是,看到被称为“铁锈地带”的伊利诺伊州、密歇根州和俄亥俄州下属的各个郡有很高的失业率也就不会令人感到惊奇了。在“阳光地带”和美国西海岸也会看到很多郡是红色标记的,这些地区的失业率是高于全美平均水平的。

With only the national average unemployment rate and without a county-level view, we wouldn’t know that lower unemployment rates concentrate in the Midwest and higher rates spread out over the rest of the nation.

如果只有全美的失业率数据而没有郡一级地区的失业率数据,我们不可能知道美国失业率较低的各郡主要集中在中西部各州,而其他各州的郡级地区失业率较高的情况。

How these graphs were created: For the first graph, search for and select “Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE).” From the “Edit Graph” panel, select “Percent” for “Units” and modify the frequency to be “Annual.” Choose “Average” for “Aggregation Method.” For the map, go to GeoFRED and click the “Build New Map” button. From the “Tools” bar, select “County” as “Region Type” and “Unemployment Rate” as “Data.” Select “Annual” as “Frequency” and “Percent” as “Units.” Select “2018” as “Date.” In “Choose Colors” tab, select “rdbu” from “Divergent” and click on “Reverse Color Scheme.” From the “Edit Legend” tab, select “2” for “Number of Color Classes” and “Fractile” as “Interval Method.”

这两张图是如何制作的?

先看第一张全美失业率走势图。

第一步是在圣路易斯联邦储备银行的主页fred.stlouisfed.org的搜索栏处输入“Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE)”,从Edit Graph图表编辑功能选项中选择“百分比“Percent”作为单位,再将“频率”改成“年Annual”,在“累计法Aggregation Method”中选择“均值Average”即可。

再看失业率分布图。

第一步,先登录圣路易斯联邦储备银行的GeoFRED主页geofred.stlouisfed.org,点击右上角的“制作新图Build New Map”功能键。从“工具栏Tools”的“地区类型Region Type”选项中,选择“郡County”,在“数据Data”选项中选择“失业率Unemployment Rate”

第二步,在“频率”选项中选“年”,“单位”选择“百分比”,“日期”选“2018”,

第三步,在“颜色”选项中,从 “Divergent” 选 “rdbu”,再点击 “Reverse Color Scheme.”, 在“Edit Legend”键的下拉菜单处选 “2” for “Number of Color Classes”,“Interval Method.”处选 “Fractile” 。

译者  王为

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