做空加拿大元?为啥这么不看好加拿大的经济?

2019/11/29 13:21
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就在加拿大国债收益率曲线正处于倒挂的同时,大多数专家们却仍然盲目地对加拿大的经济前景表示乐观。

Sell the Loonie against Everything

by Kevin Muir

I am getting more bearish on Canada every day.  And it's more than the fact that we must be suffering from hockey-hyperinflation if sticks now cost $300 each.  

我现在越来越不看好加拿大经济了,原因不仅仅是因为冰球棒的单价已经涨到了300加元的天价。

Over the next few weeks I plan to sketch out all the reasons I am negative on Canada's economy, but today I would like to focus on the signal the bond market is sending.

过去几周里,我一直打算整理出来不看好加拿大经济的各种理由,但如今,我更想把关注的焦点放在加拿大债券市场发出的信号上。

Before I do, I would like to take a moment to stress that although I am bearish on Canadian financial assets, that doesn't mean that I am a self-loathing Canadian.  I am in fact a loyal Canadian who wears a toque and pronounces it Zed, not Zee.

在正式开始前,我想先花上一点时间强调一下,尽管我对加拿大的金融市场持悲观看法,但这并不意味着我是一个自怨自艾的加拿大人。实际上,我是一个忠诚爱国的加拿大人,爱戴针织帽,在读字母Z的时候发成Zed的音,而不是Zee。

It often frustrates me how people interpret market calls as reflections of a market pundit's views of that country or people.  For example, I believe US stocks are priced for perfection relative to the rest of the world and don't represent a favourable long-term risk-reward opportunity.  Does that mean I am judging America's economy or people?  Not even for a moment.  I am simply calculating what I believe the market has priced in, and then evaluating those expectations versus what I believe to be the actual odds of that outcome occurring.  Too often this nuance is lost.  Don't ever forget that this game is not about predicting what will happen in an absolute sense, but what will happen versus what is priced in.  

有一件事让我感到不爽,人们在解读投资建议的时候经常将其理解为市场专家对某个国家或某个/些人的看法。举个例子,我认为美股的定价水平体现的是市场对美国经济优于全球其他经济的预期,因此从长期的风险收益的角度来看获利机会不大,该观点意味着我对美国经济或美国人有成见吗?根本不是这么回事儿。我只是在表达我认为市场在定价水平中暗含了何种预期,然后评估这些预期与我认为结果实际发生的概率有多大差距。我的意思总是被误解。千万别忘了,我不是在预测绝对意义上将发生的情况,而是在预测按照现在的市场定价水平所可能发生的情况

Back to Canada.  I'm bearish.  Bigly.   And I am not one of those perma-bears who for the past six years has been calling for a collapse in Canadian real estate ala a repeat of the US experience during the Great Financial Crisis.  In fact, for most of 2019 one of my favourite trades was short AUDCAD [Best Way to Short China] as a I believed Canada's economy would outperform Australia's.

话题回到加拿大,没错,我是看空加拿大,非常看空。我可不像那些死空头,他们在过去6年里一直高喊加拿大的房地产市场会崩盘,其情景好比美国在2008年金融危机时期的惨状再次上演。实际上在2019年的大部分时间里,我比较看好的一个交易策略就是做空澳大利亚元/加拿大元的汇率,因为我认为加拿大的经济表现会超过澳大利亚。

But the tide has turned.  Although Canada has a reputation as a beacon of financial stability, there is one Canadian asset class screaming danger.  Yet it's funny because almost no one is talking about it.

但现在风水轮流转了。尽管加拿大在金融稳定方面素来享有很高的声誉,但是在加拿大有一类金融资产开始拉响了警报,搞笑的是几乎没人提到这一点。

The signal from the bond market

加拿大债券市场发出了什么信号?

Remember all the hype about the US yield curve going negative this summer?  You couldn't turn on financial news television without being bombarded with "RECESSION WATCH FROM YIELD CURVE INVERSION" headlines.

还记得今年夏天美国国债收益率曲线倒挂后引发的热烈讨论吗?一打开电视机,就会看到财经频道上充斥着“从国债收益率曲线的倒挂看经济衰退”之类的新闻报道。

Almost overnight it seemed like everyone became a yield curve expert.  The economic signal that had correctly predicted the past six recessions was flashing a warning, and gosh darn, the bears were going to run with this story as best they could.

几乎一夜之间每个人似乎都能对国债收益率曲线的形态指点江山了。美国国债收益率曲线的倒挂过去曾准确预测了6次经济衰退,如今该指标再次亮起红灯,空头们正一个劲儿地拿这个说事儿。

Yeah, this summer was scary.  But then something happened...

是的,这个夏天够惊心动魄的,但随后发生了一些事儿。

With little fanfare.  With no announcement that recession-watch had been cancelled.  With zero acknowledgement the hype might have been overblown, the 2-10 yield curve snapped from negative levels and ran 30 basis points higher in the space of two months.

就这么不声不响地,连个出来说ByeBye的人也没有,突然间对美国经济衰退的讨论偃旗息鼓了。在没人承认对美国经济即将衰退的可能性做了过度解读的情况下, 10年期和2年期美国国债收益率之间的利差在两个月的时间里从一度身处的负值区域重返正值,并且国债收益率曲线整体上移了30个基点。

Was that a valid signal?  Is this the steepening that has traditionally occurred during the onset of recession?  That's a story for another day, but there has been an interesting development in the developed world's bond markets since this summer's yield curve mania.

国债收益率曲线的形态变化是个有效的预测指标吗?以前在经济衰退的前夕,国债收益率曲线有过这种陡峭化的现象吗?这个问题留待以后再说,但是在今年夏天国债收益率曲线的形态大幅波动之后在发达国家的债券市场中发生了一个有意思的变化。

Can you spot it?

注意到下图中红框标记的部分了吗?

There is only one country with an inverted yield curve.  That's right - Canada.

没错,只有一个发达国家的国债收益率曲线呈倒挂状态,这个国家就是——加拿大!

Canada's yield curve dipped negative this summer along with its larger southern neighbour, but instead of bouncing straight back up, it has failed to cross back positive.

在今年夏天,加拿大的国债收益率曲线与南边的美国一样也出现了倒挂,但是其后并没有反转回来,而是继续停留在倒挂状态。

If you are a US recession-believer due to this summer's yield curve signal, then you should be doubly bearish on Canada!  Not only did the same trigger occur, but it has failed to be rejected.  Here we are with the yield curve sitting at inverted levels and yet most market pundits are still blindly optimistic on Canada's prospects.  

如果因为今年夏天美国国债收益率曲线出现倒挂而认为美国经济衰退即将出现,那么同样也应该认为加拿大经济将出现衰退才对!不仅仅是因为加拿大和美国的国债收益率曲线均出现了倒挂,而且是因为该指标对经济衰退的预测效力从未失效过。就在加拿大国债收益率曲线正处于倒挂的同时,大多数专家们却仍然盲目地对加拿大的经济前景表示乐观

I have a whole laundry list of reasons why Canada's economy will underperform expectations (more in coming posts), but don't listen to me - listen to the bond market.  It's sending you the ultimate BE CAREFUL signal.

我可以拿出一长串的理由解释为啥认为加拿大未来的经济表现将低于预期,以后我会写这方面的话题,但我建议不用听我的,听债券市场怎么说就行,加拿大债券市场正在发出“前方危险!”的警报

To all those pundits who tell me that Canada is different and isn't susceptible to the same economic forces as the rest of the world because of our;

有些专家会讲加拿大与别的国家不一样,给全球其他国家带来负面影响的因素对加拿大不好使,原因在于加拿大有:

  1. well-run banking sector

  2. immigration policy

  3. strong-rule-of-law

  4. insert-whatever-bullish-Canada-story-you-want-in-here

1、  运转良好的银行体系

2、  移民政策

3、  强有力的法治环境

4、  随便编个什么不管咋说反正加拿大总会赢的故事

I call BS on that.  Yeah, I still drink Labatt's and say sorry too often - I AM still CANADIAN, but the loonie is a great sale against almost any other developed country on the board.

对于所有这些人,我要说你们都是垃圾。没错,我还是爱喝加拿大产的LABATT牌啤酒并且多次因看错市场而说“对不起”,我仍然是个加拿大人,但即便如此,加拿大元对几乎每一个其他发达国家货币的汇率是个非常好的做空对象。

译者  王为

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